A plaque outside the building of State Bank of Pakistan in Karachi | Reuters
Part two
When the price of one US dollar nudged above 140 Pakistani rupees in the official interbank market late March this year, the open market rate rose even higher. For a few days, it hovered above 143 rupees to a single US dollar and has come down only marginally since then. At one stage a few weeks ago, many money exchange companies were reportedly refusing to sell US dollars at any price, citing a drastic shortfall in their supply in the market.
Dr Mushtaq Khan, who worked as the chief economic adviser of policy development at the State Bank of Pakistan between 2009 and 2015, says the open market for foreign currency is volatile because of what is known as a balance of payment crisis.
There is an “unsustainably large” gap between the money we receive from abroad (through remittances, foreign investments, export proceeds and loans) and the money we have to send abroad (as the repatriation of profit on foreign investment and to pay for imports as well as to return and service foreign loans), he says.
Another factor behind the volatility is a financial assistance package that the government is expecting from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says Khan who runs a business consultancy, Doctored Papers. The package may result in changing how Pakistan manages its own currency vis-à-vis others. “If the official rate [of Pakistani rupee] is adjusted further downwards (which is expected) and if the determination of the rupee’s value is to be left to the market (which is what the IMF wants), then people will naturally try to buy dollars (to hedge themselves against an increase in dollar prices). This itself is creating a panic in the market,” he says.
A shortfall of dollars, therefore, was an indication that those who have them are holding them back anticipating an increase in their price. On April 5, the government announced that it will bring all such people to book. The then information minister Fawad Chaudhry tweeted that day that the government has directed the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) “to launch a full-fledged operation” in coordination with the State Bank of Pakistan and the federal finance ministry.
Over the next few days, FIA conducted half a dozen raids in different cities and claimed arresting several people allegedly involved in hoarding dollars and doing illegal trade in foreign currencies.
On April 7, three people were arrested from a Lahore-based foreign exchange company, DD Exchange. Foreign and local currency worth 40 million rupees was reportedly recovered from them. Another person was arrested on April 10 in Rawalpindi. Local and foreign currency worth one million rupees was reported to have been recovered from him. A day later, FIA conducted a raid on Al-Sahara Money Exchange Company Private Limited and recovered from it 2.7 million rupees in addition to 3,500 euros, 1,275 pound sterling, 4,004 Saudi riyals, 500 Canadian dollars and 520 Emirati dirhams.
On April 12, FIA’s zonal director in Karachi announced at a press conference the arrest of three suspects and the recovery of foreign and local currencies worth 420 million rupees from them. The same day, two money exchange companies were raided in Islamabad, reportedly leading to the recovery of 6,960 Saudi riyals, 1,000 euros, 2,640 pounds sterling, 3,100 Australian dollars, 5,030 US dollars, 6,335 Emirati dirhams, 100 Qatari riyals, 401 Chinese Yuan and 4.3 million Pakistani rupees.
Paracha is not impressed with these measures. On the contrary, he alleges these arrests and recoveries have resulted in suppressing genuine business activity. “The raids have created an atmosphere of fear in which both the buyers and the sellers of foreign currencies are reluctant to operate, fearing arrests and ignominy,” he says.
Economist Khan agrees that the monthly turnover of the foreign currency market may have actually shrunk. According to him, 700-750 million US dollars change hands under normal circumstance in the open market every month. This figure may have come down by 20-25 per cent due to the “recent scrutiny,” he says. But he dismisses outcries over the raids. It “is in the interests of money changers (and foreign exchange companies) to play up the panic”, he says. “They exaggerate [these reports] in the media to push back the regulators.”
Khan justifies the arrests and recoveries as part of a broader economic situation the government is contending with. “If the currency regime is to be changed and the State Bank of Pakistan wants the transition to be smooth, then keeping money changers under strict scrutiny makes sense,” he says.
This argument notwithstanding, Paracha still sees the raids as illegal. He says no Pakistani law prohibits anyone from possessing, buying or selling foreign currency. The government, therefore, has no right to confiscate foreign currency from individuals or companies, he says.
The chief spokesman of the State Bank of Pakistan agrees — partially. “Individuals are free to hold foreign exchange,” he says. But, he adds, this “freedom does not apply” to certain types of transactions. These, according to him, include: “receipts of money on account of goods and services exported from Pakistan, purchase of foreign currency from banks/exchange companies and some other modes by which foreign exchange is received in Pakistan.”
If the crackdown was aimed at stabilising the foreign currency market, the people behind it can already take credit for its success. The difference has narrowed down considerably between foreign exchange rates obtaining in the open market and the ones prevailing in the interbank market, Paracha acknowledges.
For Khan, too, it is not the quantity of money recovered that matters. The raids have achieved something more important, he observes. “It was a good way to discourage dollarisation because [under the pressure of the crackdown] money changers will tell their clients that they should be careful as all buyers’ information is being collected and sent to the authorities,” he says. “The point is to deter behaviour that could further destabilise the currency markets.”
**Name has been changed to protect identity.*
The writers are staffers at the Herald.
The article was published in the Herald's May 2019 issue. To read more subscribe to the Herald in print.