India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China's President Xi before a meeting in Xian, in China's Shaanxi province, on May 14, 2015 | AFP
An OBOR-related project that involves India directly is the “Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor,” or “BCIM-EC”. It will involve a combination of infrastructure and trade facilitation arrangements between the four countries, as road, air and water links are set up from Kolkata to Kunming in Southeast China at a total cost of 22 billion US dollars. Conceived in the 1990s, the BCIM-EC was formally endorsed by the four countries in December 2013 and is viewed as a part of the OBOR connectivity projects. While India will benefit in terms of the development of the Kolkata port and the opening up of the economic potential of the northeast states, China will obtain one more route bypassing the Malacca Straits.
China clearly does not have the monopoly for envisaging major connectivity projects in Asia, and India is fully capable of leading a number of important projects for its economic and geopolitical benefit.
Other extenuating factors
Besides the fact that India is a major role-player in a number of strategically important connectivity projects in its neighbourhood, there have been a number of developments relating to OBOR-related projects that constitute a reality check on Chinese ambitions and encourage a more cooperative mind-set on its part.
First, there is little doubt that China has recognised the need for more extensive and intensive dialogue with principal role-players such as India, whose participation in the OBOR would be crucial for the success of the project. Thus, Chinese officials and academics are anxious to remind us that the OBOR is still an evolving concept; in a paper presented in August last year at the Cambridge Research Meeting, Wang said, “[The] OBOR is still an unclear and unspecific conception, without an authoritative definition.
Actually, lots of debates and discussions about this new Silk Road are still going on inside and outside China.” He recognised the numerous challenges that the project faced, particularly from “complex religious and ethnic issues, active terrorism and extremism”, historical divisions across the region and competing geopolitical interests.
Similarly, according to Jia Qingguo,member of the standing committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and dean of international relations at Beijing University, “the idea is still at the planning stage. It will take years to come to fruition and will face many serious challenges along the way”. Finally, Lu Xiankun, a former Chinese trade negotiator, pointed out that the “OBOR is far from a fixed blueprint with detailed actions to be taken by all countries along the OBOR” and that many aspects need to be “developed, designed and consulted” before concrete actions can take place.
The one aspect of the OBOR that has caused the greatest concern in India, both in regard to its land and maritime implications, is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Second, China has already begun to understand the daunting challenges that would need to be addressed before the OBOR can become a reality. Wang, in his paper on OBOR’s connections with the Arab Gulf countries, noted the deep knowledge-gap between China and the Arab world, and even quoted a western observer who referred to their ties as “unnatural”.
Besides the geopolitical issues noted above, almost all the OBOR projects will be imbued with operational, financial, legal and regulatory, and sovereign risks on account of the wide diversity in the countries involved, and their geographical, political and economic situations. Thus, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s April 2015 report on the OBOR pointed out that just changes in governments following elections could place certain approved projects in jeopardy, as in Sri Lanka, or local activist groups could question certain projects on environmental grounds, as has happened recently with dam projects in Cambodia and Myanmar.
Hence, not surprisingly, while early writings on the project seemed to be China-centric, the principal focus of present-day comment by Chinese writers is on the need for participating countries to work closely together. Thus, Huang Yiping, a journalist for Caijing, and Chu Yin, associate professor of international relations at Tsinghua University, warned that the vision would not move forward if China were to adopt crude “great-power diplomacy” and excessive centralised planning.
Zhang Yuanyuan, speaking at a conference in Ulaanbaatar in October 2015, emphasised the “three togethers” in implementing OBOR — designing together, working together and sharing benefits together. Xiankun made this point robustly when he said, “OBOR emphasises a lot the need to integrate itself with the development strategy of OBOR countries, instead of imposing dragon claws on them.”
These considerations have led Yuanyuan to note that five points will govern China’s approach to project execution — policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, free movement of goods, financial integration and people-to-people bonds. Thus, Yuanyuan is echoing the remarks of Jaishankar who said Asian connectivity would need to take into account “institutional, regulatory, legal, digital, financial and commercial connections”, besides “the common cultural and civilisational thread that runs through Asia”.
To allay regional misgivings, Yan Xuetong advocated that China needs “to improve its image and expand friendly relationships” through a “new diplomatic approach” in the neighbourhood.
Third, the problems that are already hampering the CPEC projects in Pakistan should reassure India that it is much easier to draw lines on the map than it is to realise projects on the ground. As of now, almost every aspect of the CPEC is mired in some controversy or difficulty. There have been criticisms in provincial assemblies over the routing of the railways and highways, and over non-transparency in financial matters.
There has also been opposition from Baloch nationalists and Gwadar residents. While the Balochis fear large-scale migration of outsiders and have attacked Chinese projects and workers, the people of Gwadar fear eviction from their homes. A dedicated force of 10,000 personnel has been deployed to protect the Chinese workers.
While both China and Pakistan remain committed to the successful completion of the proposed projects, this “flagship” proposal does exemplify the daunting difficulties that other OBOR projects will face as well. To divert attention from these problems, Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif declared that India has “openly challenged” the CPEC and is “blatantly involved in destabilising Pakistan”.
Fourth, interactions with other countries appear to have made clear to China that there are misgivings about the OBOR in several Asian capitals. Hence, Chinese writers are at pains to assert that the OBOR is nothing like the Marshall Plan: it is not the result of occupation; it will not be a “tool of geopolitics”; and all countries, the US, Japan, Russia and India, are welcome to join it.
To allay regional misgivings, Yan Xuetong advocated that China needs “to improve its image and expand friendly relationships” through a “new diplomatic approach” in the neighbourhood. Chinese comment now tends to play down the geopolitical aspects of the OBOR: the need for greater sensitivity and accommodativeness is the central feature of the “vision” document and action plan. The paper upholds the centrality of policy coordination across Asia, the need for trade liberalisation and financial integration, and above all, the importance of promoting “people-to-people links”. It recognises that the OBOR would be meaningless without policy coordination in crucial areas such trade, finance and investments.
Thus, though initiated by China, the OBOR can no longer be a Chinese project; for its success, it now needs to be an Asian enterprise.
Multi-polar Asia
In his remarks at the inauguration of the Raisina Dialogue, Jaishankar urged that China eschew the unilateral approach in promoting its connectivity projects on account of their obvious geopolitical implications. In this context, he observed that such a cautious approach was particularly important in Asia “in the absence of an agreed security architecture in Asia”. Instead, he advocated a “multi-polar Asia,” which he felt would be best achieved through “open-minded consultations on the future of connectivity”.